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Estimate the total number of Taxi Drivers in Singapore.

Now that’s an interesting problem.

Like almost all guesstimate problems, this can be solved using multiple approaches. Before scrolling below, can you think of all the different approaches that come to your mind?

Below are some of the possible thoughts on how to solve this guesstimate:

  • Umm...number of Taxi Drivers in a city. This is dependent on how many people use taxis, so should we start from the demand side? Like estimate the number of people needing taxis and then take some buffer.

  • Or should we start from calculating the total number of vehicles in Singapore and take some ratio later?

  • Book a helicopter and then count all the taxis in Singapore from a bird’s eye view.

 

Apart from the last thought (which might be fun but is slightly impractical and costly unless you have a helicopter handy), the first two can be executed on paper. So let’s just stick to those.

 

Deciding the Approach


Approach 1: Demand Side
This involves estimating the number of people using taxis and how frequently they use them. It’s like trying to figure out how many people in a party want a slice of cake without knowing the size of the cake. Tricky, right?
Approach 2: Supply Side
This involves estimating the number of taxis and how many drivers are needed to keep them running. It’s like counting the number of chairs in a party and assuming each chair needs someone to sit in it at some point. More straightforward, don’t you think?
Given the choice, let’s go with the supply side approach. It feels a bit more concrete and less like trying to read minds. Plus, we can avoid the hypothetical cake arguments.

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Assumptions and Calculations

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Approach 2: Supply Side – Let’s Solve It!

  • Population of Singapore: Approximately 5.5 million people. Household Size: Assume an average household size of 3 people. This gives us 5,500,000 / 3 ≈ 1,833,333 households.

  • Vehicle Ownership: Assume 60% of households own at least one vehicle. This gives us ≈ 1,100,000 vehicles. In highly urbanized and developed cities, vehicle ownership rates often range between 50-70%. Hence, 60% is a reasonable estimate for Singapore.

  • Adjust for Commercial and Other Vehicles: Assume 15% of the total vehicle count accounts for commercial and other non-household vehicles. This gives us 1,100,000 × 1.15 ≈ 1,265,000 vehicles in total.

  • Estimate the Percentage of Taxis in the Total Vehicle Count: Let’s assume 5% of the total vehicles are taxis. This gives us 1,265,000 × 0.05 ≈ 63,250 taxis. In many urban areas, taxis typically represent around 2-6% of the total vehicle population. Given Singapore's efficient public transport system, 5% is a reasonable estimate.

  • Estimate the Number of Shifts Per Taxi: Assume each taxi is used in 2 shifts (day and night). This means 63,250 × 2 ≈ 126,500 taxi drivers.

 

There you have it, using our supply side approach and a few more assumptions, we estimate that there are approximately 126,500 taxi drivers in Singapore.

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Wrapping Up


So, whether you’re navigating the busy streets of Singapore or just trying to solve a fun guesstimate, remember that breaking down the problem and choosing the right approach can make all the difference. And who knows, next time you might even get to use a helicopter!

Stay curious and keep guesstimating!

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